category: tech

title: OpenAI's Astra maths results survive independent scrutiny

claim: OpenAI's Astra mathematics results survive independent scrutiny without a material retraction or correction of any of the ten headline results.

why: The Lean 4 certificates make outright falsity unlikely. A machine-checked proof is hard to argue with. The live risk here is provenance, not correctness: how the results were produced, not whether they hold. That is what T2 tests.

plain: Correct if none of the ten headline results is retracted, and no credible published critique shows one is false. Wrong if any is retracted or disproved.

criterion: RESOLVES CORRECT if no headline result is retracted, and no credible published critique (arXiv, journal, or a Fields-level mathematician's public statement) establishes that a headline result is false. RESOLVES WRONG if any of the ten is retracted or shown false.

status: open

tier: A

title: Ten advances in mathematics and theoretical computer science — OpenAI

title: An OpenAI model has disproved a central conjecture in discrete geometry — OpenAI

tier: B

title: An AI math breakthrough sparks calls for new guardrails — Science News


title: OpenAI never publishes the raw Astra reasoning traces

claim: OpenAI does not release the raw, unedited model reasoning traces behind the Astra results.

why: The gap between 'results verified' and 'process verified' is the honest criticism nobody is making. Checking a proof tells you it holds; it tells you nothing about how it was found, or what else was tried.

plain: Wrong if OpenAI publishes unedited traces for even one headline result. Edited traces, summaries and 'representative excerpts' do not count.

criterion: RESOLVES WRONG if OpenAI publishes unedited traces for at least one headline result. RESOLVES CORRECT otherwise. Edited traces, summaries, or 'representative excerpts' do not count.

tier: C

title: Ten advances in mathematics — Simon Willison


title: Anthropic holds the Sonnet 5 price increase

claim: Anthropic does not reverse or re-discount the Claude Sonnet 5 price increase within 90 days of it taking effect on September 1st 2026.

why: The cleanest natural experiment available on frontier pricing power. If a lab can raise the price of its workhorse model and hold it, the race-to-zero story is wrong, and every model of this industry's margins needs redoing.

plain: Wrong if list pricing drops below $3/$15 per million tokens, or a broad discount restoring pre-September economics appears, before November 30th. Targeted enterprise discounts do not count.

criterion: RESOLVES WRONG if list pricing for Sonnet 5 drops below $3/$15 per million tokens, or a broad promotional discount restoring pre-September economics is announced, before 30 Nov 2026. Targeted enterprise discounts do not count.

title: Introducing Claude Sonnet 5 — Anthropic


title: Nobody solves prompt injection

claim: No robust general architectural defense against prompt injection achieves broad industry adoption.

why: High confidence, because this is an architectural problem rather than a backlog item. Instructions and data share one channel. Until that changes, every defense is a filter. And a filter between a capable search process and its goal becomes part of the search space.

plain: Wrong if a defense becomes the default at three of the five big labs and independent red-teaming shows better than 95% mitigation on a recognized benchmark. Filters and classifiers alone do not count.

criterion: RESOLVES WRONG if a defense is adopted as default by at least three of {OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Microsoft, Meta} AND independent red-teaming reports >95% mitigation on a recognized benchmark. Filtering/classifier layers alone do not count.

title: Prompt injection still drives most agentic AI security failures in production — Help Net Security

title: When prompts become shells: RCE vulnerabilities in AI agent frameworks — Microsoft Security

title: OWASP GenAI Exploit Round-up Report Q1 2026


title: A Chinese lab open-weights a model at 2.8T parameters or larger

claim: A Chinese lab publishes open weights for a model at or above Kimi K3's 2.8T parameter scale.

why: Cadence-based rather than insight-based. The trend line is steep, consistent, and nobody involved has an incentive to stop. The way this fails is a policy shock, not a technical one.

plain: Correct if any China-based lab publishes downloadable weights for a model of 2.8T total parameters or more. An announcement without downloadable weights does not count.

criterion: RESOLVES CORRECT if any China-based lab publishes downloadable weights for a model with >=2.8T total parameters. Announcement without downloadable weights does not count.

title: China's Open-Weight Takeover — Chris Zeoli, Data Gravity

title: China's open-weight AI race in 2026: who leads and why

title: Best Chinese AI Model 2026: DeepSeek vs Qwen vs Kimi vs GLM vs MiniMax


category: business

title: Two more lab spin-outs of the Discovery Loop shape

claim: At least two additional senior-researcher spin-outs of the Discovery Loop shape occur from major AI labs.

why: Scale is rentable now. When the compute is a purchase order rather than a moat, incumbency stops holding people, and the reason to stay becomes equity rather than capability.

plain: Correct if at least two new ventures are founded by researchers leaving Google/DeepMind, OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta or Microsoft, each with a founder of VP or Distinguished Scientist stature, each raising $100M or more. Acquihires and internal reorgs do not count.

criterion: RESOLVES CORRECT if >=2 new ventures are founded by researchers departing {Google/DeepMind, OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, Microsoft}, each with >=1 founder of VP/Distinguished-Scientist level or equivalent public stature, each raising >=$100M. Acquihires and internal reorgs do not count.

title: Jeff Dean and other top AI researchers are leaving Google to launch their own startup — TechCrunch

title: The startup idea that convinced a UW computer science legend to leave Google — GeekWire

title: Top AI researchers leave Google DeepMind for OpenAI, Anthropic — Crypto Briefing


title: Palantir hits its raised FY2026 guidance

claim: Palantir meets or exceeds its raised FY2026 revenue guidance of $8.15B.

why: They raised guidance by about $1B mid-year, which implies visibility most software companies never have. The risk is timing rather than demand: government contracts slipping a quarter would do it.

plain: Correct if reported FY2026 revenue comes in at $8.15B or above.

criterion: RESOLVES CORRECT if reported FY2026 revenue >= $8.150B in the Q4/FY2026 report. Direct check against a single reported number.

title: Palantir crushes earnings as U.S. AI demand sends revenue soaring 93% — Fortune


title: A major breach names prompt injection as a root cause

claim: A major publicly-disclosed enterprise security incident occurs with prompt injection or agent compromise as a named root cause.

why: 340% year-on-year growth in attacks, no architectural fix, and agents shipping into production anyway. This is arithmetic rather than prophecy. The uncertainty is disclosure, not occurrence. It will happen; the question is whether anyone says so out loud.

plain: Correct if a company above $1B revenue, or a government agency, publicly names prompt injection or agent compromise as a root cause of a breach, and at least one credible outlet covers it.

criterion: RESOLVES CORRECT if a company with >$1B revenue, or a government agency, publicly discloses a breach naming prompt injection or autonomous-agent compromise as a root cause, covered by at least one tier-B outlet.

title: awesome-ai-agent-attacks — timeline of real AI agent security incidents (GitHub)


title: A Fortune 500 publicly pulls back from an agent program

claim: At least one Fortune 500 company publicly announces scaling back or cancelling a major agentic AI program.

why: Gartner forecasts over 40% cancellation. That number is unfalsifiable as stated, so this is the same claim rebuilt into a form that can actually be checked.

plain: Correct if a Fortune 500 company says on an earnings call, in a filing, or in an official statement that it is cancelling or materially cutting an agentic deployment. Anonymous survey data does not count: it has to be attributable.

criterion: RESOLVES CORRECT if a Fortune 500 company states on an earnings call, in a filing, or via official statement that it is cancelling or materially reducing an agentic AI deployment. Anonymous survey data does not count; attribution is required.

title: AI Agent Adoption 2026: 120+ Enterprise Data Points — Digital Applied

title: Agentic AI Statistics 2026: Adoption, ROI, and Market Size — Unico Connect


title: Entry-level developer employment does not recover

claim: US entry-level software developer employment (ages 22-25) does not recover to its 2024 level.

why: My least confident call, and logged deliberately at 0.60. The interest-rate and over-hiring confound is genuinely hard to separate from an AI effect. At this confidence a miss costs me little and a hit proves little, which is the honest position, not a hedge.

plain: Wrong if a recognized dataset shows employment for developers aged 22–25 back at 2024 levels. Correct otherwise.

criterion: RESOLVES WRONG if a recognized dataset (BLS, ADP, or an equivalent widely-cited series) shows employment for developers aged 22-25 returning to 2024 levels. RESOLVES CORRECT otherwise.

title: AI job cuts are rising, but experts say layoffs are only part of the story — CBS News

title: AI Job Displacement Statistics 2026 — AIExposure


category: finance

title: Anthropic IPOs before OpenAI

claim: Anthropic completes its IPO before OpenAI completes one.

why: Secondary-market bid/ask imbalance plus better revenue quality: Anthropic's revenue is more enterprise and more contracted, which is materially easier to underwrite.

plain: Correct if Anthropic shares begin public trading before OpenAI's do. Void if neither lists by the resolution date.

criterion: RESOLVES CORRECT if Anthropic shares begin public trading before OpenAI's do. RESOLVES WRONG if OpenAI lists first. VOID if neither lists by the resolution date.

title: Anthropic Files Confidential S-1: Joins $3 Trillion AI IPO Race — Yahoo Finance

title: Anthropic Files For IPO, Looking to Beat OpenAI to the Punch — Futurum


title: OpenAI does not IPO in September

claim: OpenAI does not complete an IPO during September 2026.

why: Reported internal lean toward 2027, and $600M of unsold secondary inventory says the private market has not cleared at the current mark. You do not go public into that.

plain: Wrong if OpenAI shares begin trading on or before September 30th 2026.

criterion: RESOLVES WRONG if OpenAI shares begin public trading on or before 30 Sept 2026. RESOLVES CORRECT otherwise.

title: OpenAI files confidential S-1 with SEC — Fox Business

title: OpenAI Targets An IPO As Soon As September At Up To $850 Billion — TechTimes


title: Nvidia beats the $91B consensus on August 26th

claim: Nvidia's Q2 FY27 revenue, reported August 26th 2026, exceeds the ~$91B consensus.

why: Nvidia has beaten consistently, and this demand is contracted rather than forecast. Confidence is only moderate because a memory-driven supply miss is a live risk, see F5.

plain: Correct if reported Q2 FY27 revenue comes in above $91.0B.

criterion: RESOLVES CORRECT if reported revenue > $91.0B. Direct check against the earnings release.

title: History Says This Is What Will Happen to Nvidia Stock After Aug. 26 — Motley Fool

title: Nvidia stock closes at record, market cap past $5 trillion — CNBC

title: NVIDIA market capitalization — CompaniesMarketCap


title: Credit cracks before equity does

claim: Credit spreads on AI-adjacent issuers widen materially before any major AI equity index suffers a 20% drawdown.

why: The core structural call. Credit is the sensor and equity is the symptom: this build-out began funded by cash flows and is now increasingly funded by debt, and debt reprices before sentiment does.

plain: Correct if AI-adjacent credit spreads widen 150bp or more from their August 2026 level before a major AI equity index falls 20% from its high. Wrong if the equity drawdown comes first. Void if neither happens.

criterion: RESOLVES CORRECT if a recognized measure of AI-adjacent/data-center IG or HY spreads widens >=150bp from its Aug 2026 level BEFORE a major AI equity index (e.g. SOX, or a recognized AI index) falls 20% from its high. RESOLVES WRONG if the equity drawdown comes first. VOID if neither occurs.

title: Financing the AI boom: from cash flows to debt — BIS Bulletin 120

title: Bond Investors Push Back As AI Debt Heads Toward $570 Billion — Forbes

title: The $3 Trillion AI Data Center Build-Out Becomes All-Consuming For Debt Markets


title: HBM stays supply-constrained through 2026

claim: HBM memory remains supply-constrained through the end of 2026.

why: Underpins both the memory thesis and the memory-bound scaling argument. Capacity takes years to build and the orders are already placed, so the supply side cannot surprise inside the window.

plain: Wrong if two or more of Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron state on an earnings call that HBM supply has moved into balance or oversupply.

criterion: RESOLVES WRONG if two or more of {Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron} publicly state on an earnings call that HBM supply has moved into balance or oversupply. RESOLVES CORRECT otherwise.


title: OpenAI signs another $10B+ non-Azure compute deal

claim: OpenAI announces at least one additional non-Azure cloud or compute commitment of $10B or more.

why: Tests the Microsoft-concentration thesis from OpenAI's side. Diversifying compute is the tell that the relationship is a supplier arrangement rather than a partnership.

plain: Correct if OpenAI publicly announces a new compute or cloud agreement of $10B or more with a provider other than Microsoft Azure. Expansions of the existing Amazon deal count only if separately announced at that size.

criterion: RESOLVES CORRECT if OpenAI publicly announces a new compute/cloud agreement >= $10B with a provider other than Microsoft Azure. Expansions of the existing Amazon deal count only if separately announced and >= $10B.

title: AI Circular Deals: How Microsoft, OpenAI and Nvidia Keep Paying Each Other — Bloomberg

title: Microsoft demand backlog doubles to $625 billion — Fortune


title: Nvidia's compute-financing MOUs produce $100B of closed vehicles in a year

claim: By August 11th 2027, definitive financing vehicles, funds or facilities established under the Nvidia partnerships with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR total at least $100B in publicly announced committed capital.

why: The $500B figure is a target attached to MOUs, and MOU-to-close attrition in infrastructure finance is real. But six institutions with $4T of AUM do not lend their names to a press release they intend to strand, and the demand side (labs converting capex to leases) is visibly forming the same week. One fifth of the headline inside a year is the honest over-under between marketing and a market.

plain: Wrong if a year from the announcement the six platforms have publicly closed less than $100B in definitive, committed financing vehicles. Restated MOUs, targets and ambitions do not count; announced closings and committed funds do.

criterion: RESOLVES WRONG if by 2027-08-11 public announcements from Nvidia or the six named partners of definitive (non-MOU) vehicles, funds or credit facilities under these compute-financing platforms sum to less than $100B in committed capital, per company press releases or major financial press. RESOLVES CORRECT otherwise.