business · prediction B5
Entry-level developer employment does not recover
Open·made August 6th 2026·resolves December 31st 2027
60% confidence
Why I called it
My least confident call, and logged deliberately at 0.60. The interest-rate and over-hiring confound is genuinely hard to separate from an AI effect. At this confidence a miss costs me little and a hit proves little, which is the honest position, not a hedge.
What countsWrong if a recognized dataset shows employment for developers aged 22–25 back at 2024 levels. Correct otherwise.
What I based it on
The call, in full. US entry-level software developer employment (ages 22-25) does not recover to its 2024 level.
Scoring criterion. RESOLVES WRONG if a recognized dataset (BLS, ADP, or an equivalent widely-cited series) shows employment for developers aged 22-25 returning to 2024 levels. RESOLVES CORRECT otherwise.
The criterion is the machine-checkable version: a prediction that cannot be settled by a third party against a public source fails the build before it reaches this page.
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