Credit cracks before equity does
Why I called it
The core structural call. Credit is the sensor and equity is the symptom: this build-out began funded by cash flows and is now increasingly funded by debt, and debt reprices before sentiment does.
The call, in full. Credit spreads on AI-adjacent issuers widen materially before any major AI equity index suffers a 20% drawdown.
Scoring criterion. RESOLVES CORRECT if a recognized measure of AI-adjacent/data-center IG or HY spreads widens >=150bp from its Aug 2026 level BEFORE a major AI equity index (e.g. SOX, or a recognized AI index) falls 20% from its high. RESOLVES WRONG if the equity drawdown comes first. VOID if neither occurs.
The criterion is the machine-checkable version: a prediction that cannot be settled by a third party against a public source fails the build before it reaches this page.
Related
- Where this call was made: Editorial: Finance
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