finance · prediction F5
HBM stays supply-constrained through 2026
Open·made August 6th 2026·resolves December 31st 2026
75% confidence
Why I called it
Underpins both the memory thesis and the memory-bound scaling argument. Capacity takes years to build and the orders are already placed, so the supply side cannot surprise inside the window.
What countsWrong if two or more of Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron state on an earnings call that supply has moved into balance or oversupply.
What I based it on
The call, in full. HBM memory remains supply-constrained through the end of 2026.
Scoring criterion. RESOLVES WRONG if two or more of {Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron} publicly state on an earnings call that HBM supply has moved into balance or oversupply. RESOLVES CORRECT otherwise.
The criterion is the machine-checkable version: a prediction that cannot be settled by a third party against a public source fails the build before it reaches this page.
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