finance · prediction F6
OpenAI signs another $10B+ non-Azure compute deal
Open·made August 6th 2026·resolves August 6th 2027
65% confidence
Why I called it
Tests the Microsoft-concentration thesis from OpenAI's side. Diversifying compute is the tell that the relationship is a supplier arrangement rather than a partnership.
What countsCorrect if OpenAI publicly announces a new compute or cloud agreement of $10B or more with a provider other than Microsoft Azure. Expansions of the existing Amazon deal count only if separately announced at that size.
What I based it on
The call, in full. OpenAI announces at least one additional non-Azure cloud or compute commitment of $10B or more.
Scoring criterion. RESOLVES CORRECT if OpenAI publicly announces a new compute/cloud agreement >= $10B with a provider other than Microsoft Azure. Expansions of the existing Amazon deal count only if separately announced and >= $10B.
The criterion is the machine-checkable version: a prediction that cannot be settled by a third party against a public source fails the build before it reaches this page.
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