Kimi K3 gets first-party hosting on a US hyperscaler cloud
Why I called it
Reuters reports Moonshot negotiating revenue-sharing agreements with all three, seeking up to 30% of K3-related service revenue. The clouds already serve Chinese models without paying their makers, so a signed deal converts distribution they give away into margin both sides can book. Against it: talks are early, the split mechanics and audit rights are unresolved, and the Treasury Secretary has threatened to blacklist the company, which is the kind of political overhang that kills deals at the signature stage.
The call, in full. By March 31st 2027, at least one of Microsoft, Amazon or Google publicly announces first-party hosting of Moonshot AI's Kimi K3 on Azure, AWS or Google Cloud.
Scoring criterion. RESOLVES CORRECT if, by March 31st 2027, Microsoft, Amazon or Google publicly announces first-party availability of Moonshot AI's Kimi K3 on Azure, AWS or Google Cloud, on any commercial terms, per an official announcement or a named-outlet report. RESOLVES WRONG otherwise.
The criterion is the machine-checkable version: a prediction that cannot be settled by a third party against a public source fails the build before it reaches this page.
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