Anthropic's public S-1 confirms the leaked revenue figure
Why I called it
Leaks from draft prospectuses routinely flatter or garble, but Reuters reviewed the document itself, which is stronger than most. If the number holds, every argument built on the leak this week stands on filed ground; if it moves, the leak was a negotiation instrument and should be read as one. The call also requires the filing to actually go public, so it doubles as a bet that the IPO stays on something like its reported track.
The call, in full. When Anthropic's S-1 becomes public, it states 2025 revenue within 10% of the leaked $4.59 billion figure.
Scoring criterion. RESOLVES WRONG if no public Anthropic S-1 appears on EDGAR by 2027-03-31 23:59 UTC, or if the filed document states fiscal 2025 revenue outside the range $4.13 billion to $5.05 billion. RESOLVES CORRECT otherwise.
The criterion is the machine-checkable version: a prediction that cannot be settled by a third party against a public source fails the build before it reaches this page.
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