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business · prediction B6

The agent liability bill gets no committee vote this year

Open·made October 4th 2026·resolves December 31st 2026
80% confidence

Why I called it

Cruz blocked Warner's board bill by objection on September 29th and has his own catastrophic-risk bill in mind. Thune wants some protections in law but Republican senators are split on how far. The midterms are five weeks out and the calendar after them is a lame-duck session. A bipartisan bill with Hawley's name on it will get hearings and press, and a markup needs a chairman who wants to own it.

What countsRight if the bill is talked about but never voted on in committee this year. Wrong if any committee votes on it or a companion, in either chamber. A hearing alone does not count.
What I based it on

The call, in full. Neither the Senate nor the House holds a committee vote on the Hawley-Murphy AI Agent Accountability Act or a companion bill before December 31st 2026.

Scoring criterion. RESOLVES WRONG if, by 2026-12-31 23:59 UTC, any committee of the US Senate or House holds a recorded vote (markup or ordered report) on the AI Agent Accountability Act introduced by Senators Hawley and Murphy, or on a companion bill, per congress.gov. Hearings, introductions and cosponsor additions do not count. RESOLVES CORRECT otherwise.

The criterion is the machine-checkable version: a prediction that cannot be settled by a third party against a public source fails the build before it reaches this page.

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