Information-sector payrolls fall in both October and November
Why I called it
September's first print had information down 10,000 against a total gain of 29,000, and the sector has now strung several negative months together. Whether AI tools cause it is a separate argument; the call is only about the sign. Two more prints in a row would turn a one-month datum into a trend that the ledger's labor calls can be tested against, and monthly noise in a sector this size is a few thousand jobs, so a miss is plausible.
The call, in full. The first-print BLS Employment Situation reports for October 2026 and November 2026 each show a negative one-month change in information-sector employment.
Scoring criterion. RESOLVES CORRECT if the BLS first-print Employment Situation releases for October 2026 and November 2026, both published by 2026-12-11, each report a negative seasonally adjusted one-month change in information-sector payroll employment. RESOLVES WRONG if either shows zero or a positive change. RESOLVES VOID if either release is not published by that date.
The criterion is the machine-checkable version: a prediction that cannot be settled by a third party against a public source fails the build before it reaches this page.
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