Anthropic's IPO valuation is below $2 trillion
Why I called it
Reuters-sourced coverage says bankers are discussing a above $2 trillion, against $965 billion at the May round and about $1.4 trillion for OpenAI's reported private raise. The shows $4.59 billion of 2025 revenue and a $518 billion obligation schedule that Reuters says is about 80% non-cancelable. A buyer of a first-day float prices the schedule as well as the growth, and bankers' talk is a ceiling for the book-building, not the print. A strong market, with the Nasdaq at a record and Nvidia past $5.7 trillion, is the main reason this is only 60%.
The call, in full. If Anthropic prices its IPO by March 31st 2027, the valuation at the IPO price is below $2 trillion.
Scoring criterion. RESOLVES CORRECT if Anthropic prices an IPO on or before 2027-03-31 23:59 UTC and Reuters, Bloomberg or the offering prospectus reports a valuation at the IPO price (fully diluted) below $2 trillion. RESOLVES WRONG if the reported valuation at the IPO price is $2 trillion or higher. RESOLVES VOID if no IPO has priced by that date.
The criterion is the machine-checkable version: a prediction that cannot be settled by a third party against a public source fails the build before it reaches this page.
Related
- Anthropic IPOs before OpenAI · 75%, open
- OpenAI does not IPO in September · 80%, right
- Nvidia beats the $91B consensus on August 26th · 75%, right