The White House incident mandate gets no deadline or penalty this year
Why I called it
The October 9th statement from the Superintelligence task force calls disclosure 'not optional' and a 'national security obligation', and contains no deadline, no named legal authority and no penalty. Earlier White House AI documents this autumn, including the accord signed with the labs, stayed at the same level of generality, and the one fast route to an enforceable board was blocked on the Senate floor. Turning a statement into a rule needs a statute or a rulemaking, and neither fits in eleven weeks.
The call, in full. Before December 31st 2026, no White House action, executive order or federal agency notice attaches a numeric reporting deadline or a stated sanction to the requirement that AI companies disclose incidents involving their models.
Scoring criterion. RESOLVES WRONG if by 2026-12-31 23:59 UTC a White House statement, executive order or federal agency notice publishes a numeric deadline for AI-incident disclosure or a stated penalty for non-disclosure. RESOLVES CORRECT otherwise.
The criterion is the machine-checkable version: a prediction that cannot be settled by a third party against a public source fails the build before it reaches this page.
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