Nvidia does not agree to buy Reflection by March 31st
Why I called it
Reuters, citing the Financial Times, reported on October 10th that Nvidia is in early talks about a deeper investment or an acquisition, and that the talks could end in a hire-and-license arrangement instead. Nvidia has put about $99 billion into AI companies as equity stakes, and its deal already faces scrutiny, which makes a second purchase of a model developer that sells to Nvidia's competitors harder to wave through. The likelier forms are a larger stake or a licensing deal, and the report itself says the talks could collapse.
The call, in full. Nvidia does not announce a definitive agreement to acquire a majority of Reflection AI by March 31st 2027. A minority investment, or an arrangement to hire staff and license technology, does not count as an acquisition.
Scoring criterion. RESOLVES WRONG if by 2027-03-31 23:59 UTC Nvidia or Reflection AI announces, or two established outlets report as signed, a definitive agreement for Nvidia to acquire more than 50% of Reflection AI. RESOLVES CORRECT otherwise.
The criterion is the machine-checkable version: a prediction that cannot be settled by a third party against a public source fails the build before it reaches this page.
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