The 10-year Treasury closes at 5.5% or higher by year-end
Why I called it
The 10-year touched 5.3645% during the week of October 5th, its highest since April 2002, on inflation concern, while the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the week higher. Every data-center financing and vendor facility in the last two months was priced against cheaper money. Fourteen is a normal two-month range for the 10-year in a stressed year, so this is a coin flip with a lean toward the move continuing, and the AI financing stack is the part of the market that cannot tolerate it.
The call, in full. The US 10-year Treasury par yield published by the Treasury Department is 5.50% or higher on at least one day between October 12th and December 31st 2026.
Scoring criterion. RESOLVES CORRECT if the US Treasury Department's Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates show a 10-year value of 5.50 or higher on any date from 2026-10-12 through 2026-12-31. RESOLVES WRONG otherwise.
The criterion is the machine-checkable version: a prediction that cannot be settled by a third party against a public source fails the build before it reaches this page.
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