The EU's first AI Act enforcement test ends without formal proceedings
Why I called it
Both incidents happened during testing, where the AI Act's research-and-development exemption gives the labs a strong defense, and an enforcement office two months into its powers has more to lose from a failed first case than from a slow one. Requests for information let Brussels look active while it decides whether the broader reading of the Act survives contact with lawyers.
The call, in full. The European Commission's AI Office does not open formal AI Act proceedings against OpenAI or Anthropic over the summer 2026 incidents before December 31st 2026.
Scoring criterion. RESOLVES WRONG if before 2026-12-31 23:59 UTC the European Commission or its AI Office publicly announces the opening of formal AI Act proceedings or a sanction process against OpenAI or Anthropic concerning the summer 2026 agent incidents, per a Commission statement or two established outlets. RESOLVES CORRECT otherwise.
The criterion is the machine-checkable version: a prediction that cannot be settled by a third party against a public source fails the build before it reaches this page.
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