The FTC files no case against OpenAI or Anthropic before July 2027
Why I called it
Civil investigative demands start a document-collection phase that usually runs for more than a year, and a commission that is also building an AI task force charter has reasons to prefer a record to a lawsuit. This is a call that something does not happen, and the ledger's quiet calls have missed more often than its loud ones, so the confidence stays below the usual level for a slow agency.
The call, in full. The Federal Trade Commission does not file a complaint or announce a settlement with OpenAI or Anthropic arising from its October 2026 before July 1st 2027.
Scoring criterion. RESOLVES WRONG if before 2027-07-01 00:00 UTC the FTC files a complaint, opens an administrative proceeding, or announces a consent order or settlement with OpenAI or Anthropic concerning the investigation reported October 15th 2026, per an FTC release or two established outlets. RESOLVES CORRECT otherwise.
The criterion is the machine-checkable version: a prediction that cannot be settled by a third party against a public source fails the build before it reaches this page.
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