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finance · prediction F4

Anthropic's $9 billion chip debt with Blackstone closes by December 31st

Open·made October 18th 2026·resolves December 31st 2026
60% confidence

Why I called it

Anthropic is reported to be offering more than 10% against five years of lease payments, in a market where a larger Anthropic chip package was reported in June to price at about 5.75% on its . A borrower that agrees to double-digit terms wants the money more than it wants a better price. The risk is that the calendar changes what Anthropic is willing to sign before its is public.

What countsRight if a closing or signing of a debt financing of roughly $9 billion (between $8 billion and $10 billion) secured on chips leased to Anthropic is reported by year-end. Talks, term sheets and offers do not count.
What I based it on
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The call, in full. Anthropic and funds managed by Blackstone close, or are reported by Reuters, Bloomberg or the Financial Times to have signed, a chip-backed debt financing of about $9 billion on or before December 31st 2026.

Scoring criterion. RESOLVES CORRECT if on or before 2026-12-31 23:59 UTC Reuters, Bloomberg or the Financial Times reports, or Anthropic or Blackstone announces, that a chip-lease-backed debt financing of $8 billion to $10 billion for Anthropic has been signed or closed. RESOLVES WRONG otherwise.

The criterion is the machine-checkable version: a prediction that cannot be settled by a third party against a public source fails the build before it reaches this page.

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