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finance · prediction F5

TSMC reports at least $53 billion in fourth-quarter revenue

Open·made October 18th 2026·resolves January 31st 2027
65% confidence

Why I called it

The threshold sits inside management and requires another step up from the reported quarter. Strong manufacturing demand supports the call, but delivery timing and exchange rates can still defeat the dollar test.

What countsRight if TSMC reports at least $53.0 billion of fourth-quarter 2026 revenue in US dollars by the end of January. Guidance, annualized figures and a currency conversion we calculate ourselves do not count.
What I based it on
Ainvestor

The call, in full. TSMC reports fourth-quarter 2026 revenue of at least US$53.0 billion by January 31st 2027.

Scoring criterion. RESOLVES CORRECT if by 2027-01-31 23:59 UTC TSMC publishes Q4 2026 actual revenue >=US$53.0 billion in its quarterly earnings release or investor presentation. Use the company-reported US-dollar number, not a third-party conversion; guidance is excluded. RESOLVES WRONG otherwise.

The criterion is the machine-checkable version: a prediction that cannot be settled by a third party against a public source fails the build before it reaches this page.

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