Counterpoint reports fourth-quarter PC shipments down on the year
Why I called it
Counterpoint put third-quarter shipments at 57 million, down 21%, and blamed higher memory and component prices, weak consumer demand and a strong comparison quarter, and it forecasts another decline. Memory makers are prioritizing AI capacity and the pricing has not eased. The case against is commercial replacement demand, which gave some support, and a weaker year-ago base if the fourth quarter of 2025 was itself softening.
The call, in full. Counterpoint Research's preliminary global PC shipment figure for the fourth quarter of 2026 is below its figure for the fourth quarter of 2025.
Scoring criterion. RESOLVES CORRECT if, by 2027-01-31 23:59 UTC, Counterpoint Research publishes preliminary global PC shipments for Q4 2026 showing a year-over-year decline. RESOLVES WRONG if it shows flat or higher shipments. If Counterpoint has not published by that date, the call stays open until it does.
The criterion is the machine-checkable version: a prediction that cannot be settled by a third party against a public source fails the build before it reaches this page.
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