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finance · prediction F1

OpenAI's Coatue-led round closes at $25 billion or more

Open·made October 25th 2026·resolves December 31st 2026
65% confidence

Why I called it

The cleanest read on whether the equity window is still open at the top. OpenAI cut its ask from $1.4 trillion to $1.25 trillion and set an October 30th commitment deadline; reports say demand is softer than in earlier raises. If the most visible private company in the world cannot fill a round it already repriced downward, every AI below it reprices too. If it closes full, this week's credit stress was noise at the equity layer.

What countsRight if OpenAI's new round closes at $25 billion or more by December 31st. Wrong if it closes below that, is withdrawn, or has not closed by year-end. The $1.25 trillion valuation can move; the test is the dollars raised.
What I based it on
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The call, in full. OpenAI closes its current Coatue-led funding round at a total of at least $25 billion in new by December 31st 2026.

Scoring criterion. RESOLVES WRONG if by 2026-12-31 23:59 UTC there is no announcement by OpenAI or report by at least two established outlets (Reuters, Bloomberg, FT, CNBC, WSJ, The Information) that the round first reported October 22nd 2026 has closed with total new primary commitments of at least $25 billion. RESOLVES CORRECT otherwise.

The criterion is the machine-checkable version: a prediction that cannot be settled by a third party against a public source fails the build before it reaches this page.

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