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finance · prediction F3

CoreWeave's market value ends 2026 below $45 billion

Open·made October 25th 2026·resolves December 31st 2026
60% confidence

Why I called it

CoreWeave's market value is near $31 billion against a peak close to $90 billion, its passed 1,100 and its bonds approach 15% yields. Nvidia's agreement to buy up to $6.3 billion of its compute and every operator's claim that capacity is sold are the case for recovery, and a $45 billion threshold leaves room for a half-recovery of the price.

What countsRight if CoreWeave is worth less than $45 billion at the close of the last trading day of 2026. Wrong if it is worth $45 billion or more.
What I based it on

The call, in full. CoreWeave's at the close of the last US trading day of 2026 is below $45 billion.

Scoring criterion. RESOLVES CORRECT if the market capitalization of CoreWeave, Inc. at the 2026 final US trading-day close, per Nasdaq or a major financial data provider, is below $45 billion. RESOLVES WRONG if it is $45 billion or more. If providers disagree by more than 3%, the Nasdaq share price times the latest share count in its filings controls.

The criterion is the machine-checkable version: a prediction that cannot be settled by a third party against a public source fails the build before it reaches this page.

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