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finance · prediction F1

Alphabet guides 2027 capital spending above $240 billion

Open·made October 28th 2026·resolves February 28th 2027
60% confidence

Why I called it

Alphabet held 2026 at $195 billion to $205 billion and said 2027 will rise significantly while Google Cloud's profit tripled in a year. A midpoint above $240 billion is roughly 20% growth; a rise smaller than that would suggest the negative is starting to discipline spending.

What countsRight if the 2027 capital spending figure Alphabet first gives, usually on its fourth-quarter call, has a midpoint above $240 billion. A single number counts as its own midpoint. Wrong if it is $240 billion or less, or if no figure is given by February 28th.
What I based it on
AsecBcnbc

The call, in full. Alphabet's first official 2027 has a midpoint above $240 billion.

Scoring criterion. RESOLVES CORRECT if by 2027-02-28 23:59 UTC Alphabet, in an earnings release, earnings call or filing, gives full-year 2027 capital expenditure guidance whose midpoint (or single figure) exceeds $240 billion. RESOLVES WRONG if the first such guidance has a midpoint of $240 billion or less, or if no 2027 guidance is given by the deadline.

The criterion is the machine-checkable version: a prediction that cannot be settled by a third party against a public source fails the build before it reaches this page.

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