Marvell signs a deal to buy Lumentum by November 30th
Why I called it
Bloomberg reports advanced talks and a possible announcement as soon as next week. Leaks at that stage usually come from a process near signing, and Lumentum being nearly sold out for 2029 gives Marvell a reason not to let it go to a rival. The risk is financing: Bernstein says a deal this size is hard to fund in cash.
The call, in full. Marvell Technology and Lumentum Holdings announce a definitive agreement for Marvell to acquire Lumentum by November 30th 2026.
Scoring criterion. RESOLVES CORRECT if by 2026-11-30 23:59 UTC Marvell Technology or Lumentum Holdings publicly announces (press release or filing such as an ) a definitive agreement for Marvell to acquire Lumentum. RESOLVES WRONG otherwise.
The criterion is the machine-checkable version: a prediction that cannot be settled by a third party against a public source fails the build before it reaches this page.
Related
- Two more lab spin-outs of the Discovery Loop shape · 75%, open
- Palantir hits its raised FY2026 guidance · 80%, open
- A major breach names prompt injection as a root cause · 75%, open