Anthropic's amended S-1 puts its total commitments above $600 billion
Why I called it
The public lists named compute contracts worth about $475.8 billion on our arithmetic (Microsoft, Google, Amazon, SpaceXAI, Nscale and Lambda) before the $63 billion Broadcom lease vehicle, up to $42 billion of issuable to Broadcom and an AMD deal with no fixed amount. The filing's own total is left blank. Short-term commitments and smaller providers push the true figure higher, so we expect the number Anthropic fills in to clear $600 billion. The risk is that the amendment slips past January or defines the total narrowly.
The call, in full. An amended Anthropic S-1 filed by January 31st 2027 states an aggregate committed spend on purchase commitments and leases above $600 billion.
Scoring criterion. RESOLVES CORRECT if, by 2027-01-31 23:59 UTC, an amended registration statement (S-1/A) or final filed by Anthropic, on EDGAR states an aggregate committed spend for purchase commitments and lease agreements (including leases not yet commenced) greater than $600 billion. RESOLVES WRONG if the stated figure is $600 billion or less, or if no such filing states the figure by that time.
The criterion is the machine-checkable version: a prediction that cannot be settled by a third party against a public source fails the build before it reaches this page.
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