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business · prediction B1

Hinojosa orders a Texas data center pause by April 30th

Open·made November 4th 2026·resolves April 30th 2027
60% confidence

Why I called it

She ran on a and won, and Abbott's August and September letters showed a governor can stop connections and permits by directive with no vote in the Legislature. The case against is that Republicans still hold that Legislature, the audit may end the existing pause before she takes office, and a governor who has just won can settle for rate and water rules instead. We think the promise and the precedent together beat those reasons within about 100 days.

What countsRight if Hinojosa, as governor, publishes an order or letter telling Texas agencies to pause or keep pausing new data center grid connections or permits statewide by April 30th 2027. Rules on rates, water or tax breaks alone do not count, and neither does a pause limited to some projects or regions.
What I based it on

The call, in full. Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa issues a formal directive that starts or extends a statewide pause on new data center grid connections or state permits on or before April 30th 2027.

Scoring criterion. RESOLVES CORRECT if the Texas Governor's Office publishes an executive order, proclamation or letter signed by Governor Hinojosa on or before 2027-04-30 23:59 UTC directing ERCOT, the PUCT or TCEQ to pause, or continue pausing, new data center interconnections or permits statewide. RESOLVES WRONG otherwise.

The criterion is the machine-checkable version: a prediction that cannot be settled by a third party against a public source fails the build before it reaches this page.

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