OpenAI's Astra maths results survive independent scrutiny
Why I called it
The certificates make outright falsity unlikely. A machine-checked proof is hard to argue with. The live risk here is , not correctness: how the results were produced, not whether they hold. That is what Prediction 2026-08-06-T2 tests.
The call, in full. OpenAI's Astra mathematics results survive independent scrutiny without a material retraction or correction of any of the ten headline results.
Scoring criterion. RESOLVES CORRECT if no headline result is retracted, and no credible published critique (arXiv, journal, or a Fields-level mathematician's public statement) establishes that a headline result is false. RESOLVES WRONG if any of the ten is retracted or shown false.
The criterion is the machine-checkable version: a prediction that cannot be settled by a third party against a public source fails the build before it reaches this page.
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