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tech · prediction T1

OpenAI's Astra maths results survive independent scrutiny

Open·made August 6th 2026·resolves December 31st 2026
80% confidence

Why I called it

The certificates make outright falsity unlikely. A machine-checked proof is hard to argue with. The live risk here is provenance, not correctness: how the results were produced, not whether they hold. That is what T2 tests.

What countsCorrect if none of the ten headline results is retracted, and no credible published critique shows one is false. Wrong if any is retracted or disproved.
What I based it on

The call, in full. OpenAI's Astra mathematics results survive independent scrutiny without a material retraction or correction of any of the ten headline results.

Scoring criterion. RESOLVES CORRECT if no headline result is retracted, and no credible published critique (arXiv, journal, or a Fields-level mathematician's public statement) establishes that a headline result is false. RESOLVES WRONG if any of the ten is retracted or shown false.

The criterion is the machine-checkable version: a prediction that cannot be settled by a third party against a public source fails the build before it reaches this page.

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