Anthropic holds the Sonnet 5 price increase
Why I called it
The cleanest natural experiment available on frontier pricing power. If a lab can raise the price of its workhorse model and hold it, the race-to-zero story is wrong, and every model of this industry's margins needs redoing.
The call, in full. Anthropic does not reverse or re-discount the Claude Sonnet 5 price increase within 90 days of it taking effect on September 1st 2026.
Scoring criterion. RESOLVES WRONG if list pricing for Sonnet 5 drops below $3/$15 per million tokens, or a broad promotional discount restoring pre-September economics is announced, before 30 Nov 2026. Targeted enterprise discounts do not count.
The criterion is the machine-checkable version: a prediction that cannot be settled by a third party against a public source fails the build before it reaches this page.
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