tech · prediction T2
OpenAI never publishes the raw Astra reasoning traces
Open·made August 6th 2026·resolves February 28th 2027
75% confidence
Why I called it
The gap between 'results verified' and 'process verified' is the honest criticism nobody is making. Checking a proof tells you it holds; it tells you nothing about how it was found, or what else was tried.
What countsWrong if OpenAI publishes unedited traces for even one headline result. Edited traces, summaries and 'representative excerpts' do not count.
What I based it on
The call, in full. OpenAI does not release the raw, unedited model reasoning traces behind the Astra results.
Scoring criterion. RESOLVES WRONG if OpenAI publishes unedited traces for at least one headline result. RESOLVES CORRECT otherwise. Edited traces, summaries, or 'representative excerpts' do not count.
The criterion is the machine-checkable version: a prediction that cannot be settled by a third party against a public source fails the build before it reaches this page.
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