DeepSeek holds the August 16th price increase
Why I called it
DeepSeek built its identity on being the price floor of frontier , and it is now tripling V4-Pro peak pricing while telling developers demand exceeds capacity. If the cheapest capable lab holds a 3x increase, availability does not discipline pricing the way the market assumes; if it cannot, the floor reasserts itself within a quarter. Either answer reprices every inference business model, and T3 runs the same experiment on Anthropic from the premium end.
The call, in full. DeepSeek does not reverse or reduce the API price schedule that takes effect on August 16th 2026 within 90 days.
Scoring criterion. RESOLVES WRONG if, before 2026-11-14 23:59 UTC, DeepSeek's published API price list shows V4-Pro peak-hour pricing below 9 CNY per million input or 27 CNY per million output tokens, or DeepSeek publicly announces a reversal of the August 16th schedule. RESOLVES CORRECT otherwise.
The criterion is the machine-checkable version: a prediction that cannot be settled by a third party against a public source fails the build before it reaches this page.
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