OpenAI ships no Critical-cyber-tier model in 2026
Why I called it
OpenAI paused its largest frontier reinforcement-learning run for two weeks and left it on hold after concluding an internal model (Astra) could reach the Critical cyber tier, and it says the new monitoring adds roughly 20% compute overhead. A lab that has just publicly slowed down, disbanded its standalone Preparedness team, and is walking into an IPO has every reason not to be the first to ship a model it labeled Critical. The call fails the moment capability pressure or a competitor forces the release anyway, which is the interesting thing to watch.
The call, in full. OpenAI does not release to general availability any model it has designated as reaching the Critical cyber tier of its Preparedness Framework before December 31st 2026.
Scoring criterion. RESOLVES WRONG if OpenAI makes generally available (any consumer or tier) a model it has publicly designated as Critical on the cyber axis of its Preparedness Framework on or before 2026-12-31, per OpenAI announcements or named press. RESOLVES CORRECT otherwise.
The criterion is the machine-checkable version: a prediction that cannot be settled by a third party against a public source fails the build before it reaches this page.