Jalapeño serves OpenAI production traffic by mid-2027
Why I called it
Benchmarks are marketing until silicon carries revenue traffic. OpenAI published performance-per-watt numbers against Blackwell and SemiAnalysis largely endorsed them, but chip programs historically die between the Hot Chips talk and the data center: software maturity, yield, packaging supply and the temptation to keep buying Nvidia all sit in the gap. If the chip is real, production deployment is the test it cannot skip, and OpenAI has every incentive to announce it loudly when it happens.
The call, in full. OpenAI or Broadcom publicly confirms that the Jalapeño inference chip is serving production inference traffic for at least one generally available OpenAI model or product by June 30th 2027.
Scoring criterion. RESOLVES CORRECT if by 2027-06-30 (23:59 UTC) OpenAI or Broadcom has publicly and verifiably stated that Jalapeño silicon serves production inference traffic for at least one generally available OpenAI model or product. RESOLVES WRONG otherwise.
The criterion is the machine-checkable version: a prediction that cannot be settled by a third party against a public source fails the build before it reaches this page.