OpenAI cuts Cursor off from its models and the shutoff holds
Why I called it
OpenAI gave Cursor a November 12th shutoff and grounded it in the owner rather than the product: Twitter breaking its OpenAI contract after Musk's takeover, and Musk's own sworn testimony that xAI violated OpenAI's terms. That reasoning does not soften with negotiation, because the thing OpenAI distrusts is the acquirer, which is not changing. Cursor says OpenAI models are only 5% of its traffic, which cuts both ways: it lowers Cursor's urgency to concede and OpenAI's cost of walking. The relationship is also structurally adversarial now, with OpenAI selling a competing coding . The main path to the call resolving wrong is a face-saving deal that lets both sides climb down, which is possible but runs against a public statement this pointed.
The call, in full. OpenAI ends Cursor's access to OpenAI models on or about November 12th 2026 with no renewed agreement in place, following SpaceX's acquisition of Cursor.
Scoring criterion. RESOLVES CORRECT if by 2026-11-30 (23:59 UTC) OpenAI has terminated Cursor's access to OpenAI models with no publicly announced renewed or replacement agreement keeping those models available in Cursor. RESOLVES WRONG if such an agreement is announced or OpenAI publicly rescinds the termination before access is cut.
The criterion is the machine-checkable version: a prediction that cannot be settled by a third party against a public source fails the build before it reaches this page.