OpenAI logs fewer than 15 misalignment reports in year one
Why I called it
Six reports in the framework's opening week is a fast start for a voluntary disclosure process, but the framework explicitly separates cases ready for publication from those under extended review, and OpenAI alone decides which cases clear that bar. A process that controls its own throughput and its own definition of what counts tends to slow once the obvious clears, the same pattern Prediction 2026-09-13-T1 is testing for Anthropic's evaluator program.
The call, in full. OpenAI's new model-misalignment disclosure framework publishes fewer than 15 total incident reports in its first twelve months.
Scoring criterion. RESOLVES CORRECT if, by 2027-09-17 23:59 UTC, OpenAI has published fewer than 15 cumulative incident reports under its model-misalignment disclosure framework announced September 17th 2026, per OpenAI's own published count or a credible named-outlet tally. RESOLVES WRONG at 15 or more.
The criterion is the machine-checkable version: a prediction that cannot be settled by a third party against a public source fails the build before it reaches this page.