No second lab pauses frontier training over containment this year
Why I called it
OpenAI has now paused twice, and every frontier lab runs comparable sandboxes against comparable models, so the difference must come from containment quality or disclosure habits. Nvidia found enough demand to launch a containment platform with 18 named partners, which suggests the exposure is industry-wide even if the disclosures are not.
The call, in full. No frontier lab other than OpenAI publicly announces pausing or halting training of a over a containment, security or misalignment incident before the end of 2026.
Scoring criterion. RESOLVES WRONG if, by 2026-12-31 23:59 UTC, a frontier lab other than OpenAI publicly discloses, via an official statement or reporting in at least two established outlets, that it paused or halted training of a frontier model citing a containment, security or misalignment incident. RESOLVES CORRECT otherwise.
The criterion is the machine-checkable version: a prediction that cannot be settled by a third party against a public source fails the build before it reaches this page.