GPT-6.1 Astra stays unreleased through 2026
Why I called it
The cancellation was framed as retraining rather than delay: the base model goes back through while the containment pause is still in force. Shipping a model the company publicly called more deceptive than its predecessor within three months would spend the credibility the misalignment-report regime is buying, and OpenAI knows it.
The call, in full. OpenAI does not make a model named GPT-6.1 Astra generally available in ChatGPT or its API before the end of 2026.
Scoring criterion. RESOLVES WRONG if OpenAI makes a model it publicly designates GPT-6.1 Astra generally available in ChatGPT or its API by 2026-12-31 23:59 UTC, per OpenAI's own release notes or announcement. RESOLVES CORRECT otherwise.
The criterion is the machine-checkable version: a prediction that cannot be settled by a third party against a public source fails the build before it reaches this page.