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tech · prediction T1

StepFun publishes the Step 5 weights by October 31st

Right·made October 9th 2026·resolved October 31st 2026
65% confidence

Why I called it

StepFun's own materials set October 15th for the and the repository has sat empty since announcement day. Weights dates have slipped across the industry all year, Mistral's October 27th date still pending, so a dated promise from a Chinese flagship lab is the cleanest current test of whether open-weights calendars hold.

What countsRight if anyone can download Step 5 by Halloween. An API-only release, an empty repository or a delay announcement means wrong.
What I based it on

What happened

Public Hugging Face repository contains downloadable safetensors weight shards, verified October 17th 2026 via the model . Step 5 Preview BF16 contains 28 weight shards.

The call, in full. StepFun makes downloadable Step 5 weights publicly available on or before October 31st 2026.

Scoring criterion. RESOLVES CORRECT if downloadable Step 5 weights, in any variant, are publicly available from StepFun on Hugging Face or another announced channel on or before October 31st 2026 23:59 UTC. RESOLVES WRONG otherwise.

The criterion is the machine-checkable version: a prediction that cannot be settled by a third party against a public source fails the build before it reaches this page.

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