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Reflection publishes the Beam weights by October 31st

Right·made October 11th 2026·resolved October 31st 2026
65% confidence

Why I called it

Reflection announced Beam on October 5th as a 501 billion parameter model with 23 billion active, and promised Apache-licensed , a technical report and deployment tools later in October, after safety testing. Weights dates have slipped across the industry all year, and Nvidia is now reported to be weighing a purchase or a deeper investment, which can freeze a release as easily as fund it. A company that gave a dated month and a named license is more likely than not to ship inside it, and the margin is the thin one that reflects how often promises of this kind have moved.

What countsRight if Reflection's Beam weights can be downloaded from a public repository under by the end of October. Early-access access, a model card without weights, or a different license do not count.
What I based it on

What happened

Public repository contains downloadable safetensors weight shards, verified October 17th 2026 via the model API. Beam model metadata specifies Apache 2.0.

The call, in full. Reflection AI makes the weights of its Beam model publicly downloadable under the Apache 2.0 license by 23:59 UTC on October 31st 2026.

Scoring criterion. RESOLVES CORRECT if by 2026-10-31 23:59 UTC a public Hugging Face or GitHub repository owned by Reflection AI hosts downloadable Beam weights under the Apache 2.0 license. RESOLVES WRONG otherwise.

The criterion is the machine-checkable version: a prediction that cannot be settled by a third party against a public source fails the build before it reaches this page.

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