METR publishes its first embedded Anthropic evaluation by March 31st
Why I called it
Anthropic's October 15th post gives six METR staff employee-level access and, per coverage, no veto over publication. An arrangement like this only matters once something comes out of it, and METR has every reason to publish early to show the terms work. The risk is that redaction review and a pre-IPO quiet period slow the first report past spring.
The call, in full. METR publishes a report based on its embedded team's work inside Anthropic on or before March 31st 2027.
Scoring criterion. RESOLVES CORRECT if on or before 2027-03-31 23:59 UTC METR or Anthropic publishes a report whose text states it is based on METR's embedded access to Anthropic's internal systems and contains evaluation findings, per the publisher's site. RESOLVES WRONG otherwise.
The criterion is the machine-checkable version: a prediction that cannot be settled by a third party against a public source fails the build before it reaches this page.