China finalizes AI export controls by March 31st
Why I called it
Beijing proposed restrictions on models at or above two trillion and on some technologies while carving out APIs and already-public work, which makes a narrow rule easy to finalize. The text restricts little that Chinese labs currently ship abroad, so industry resistance should be mild. The risk is that trade talks with Washington freeze the list.
The call, in full. China's Ministry of Commerce publishes a final export-control catalog or announcement that includes AI technologies from the 40-technology draft proposed on October 16th 2026, on or before March 31st 2027.
Scoring criterion. RESOLVES CORRECT if on or before 2027-03-31 23:59 UTC China's Ministry of Commerce or State Council publishes a final measure adding AI technologies from the October 16th 2026 proposal to its export-control catalog, per an official announcement or two established outlets. RESOLVES WRONG otherwise.
The criterion is the machine-checkable version: a prediction that cannot be settled by a third party against a public source fails the build before it reaches this page.