Moonshot publishes the Kimi K3.1 Pro weights by November 4th
Why I called it
Moonshot put a public date on the download in its own announcement. Chinese labs have mostly kept dated promises this year, MiniMax kept one this week, and a lab courting credibility pays a visible price for breaking a date it chose itself. The risk is scale: 2.8 trillion is an expensive artifact to stage and host, and a slip of days would be unsurprising.
The call, in full. Moonshot releases downloadable Kimi K3.1 Pro weights on or before November 4th 2026, as promised in its launch post.
Scoring criterion. RESOLVES CORRECT if downloadable weights for Kimi K3.1 Pro (the 2.8T-total-parameter model) are publicly available on or Moonshot's own distribution channel on or before 2026-11-04 23:59 UTC. RESOLVES WRONG otherwise.
The criterion is the machine-checkable version: a prediction that cannot be settled by a third party against a public source fails the build before it reaches this page.