No one in Congress introduces Anthropic's 45-day suspension bill by March 31st
Why I called it
Anthropic's 37-page draft would put the most powerful models under Commerce, require outside evaluations every 180 days and preempt state safety-disclosure rules. A lab-drafted bill that trades state for one federal power needs a sponsor willing to carry the preemption fight, and the calendar between now and spring is appropriations, a midterm aftermath and a change of committee chairs. Any sponsor who does introduce it would have to accept being described as the lab's author.
The call, in full. No member of the US House or Senate introduces a bill whose text gives the Commerce secretary the power to seek a 45-day suspension of a in federal court, between October 26th 2026 and March 31st 2027.
Scoring criterion. RESOLVES WRONG if, between 2026-10-26 and 2027-03-31 23:59 UTC, a bill is introduced in the US House or Senate, as shown on congress.gov, whose text authorizes the Secretary of Commerce to seek a suspension of a covered AI model for an initial period of 45 days in a federal court. RESOLVES CORRECT otherwise.
The criterion is the machine-checkable version: a prediction that cannot be settled by a third party against a public source fails the build before it reaches this page.