Gemini 4 Carbon opens to all paying developers by December 31st
Why I called it
Google launched Carbon on October 28th to cyber defenders in its Fairwind Program and promised developers access 'as soon as possible', with introductory pricing already published. Argon went from launch to general paid availability within weeks. The call tests whether defenders-first is a short head start or a lasting gate on the strongest cyber model.
The call, in full. Google makes Gemini 4 Carbon available to any paying developer through the Gemini API or Vertex AI, without program enrollment or allowlisting, by December 31st 2026.
Scoring criterion. RESOLVES CORRECT if by 2026-12-31 23:59 UTC Google's Gemini API documentation, changelog, Vertex AI model page or an official Google blog post shows Gemini 4 Carbon available to all paid Gemini API or Vertex AI accounts without program enrollment, trusted-tester status or allowlisting. RESOLVES WRONG otherwise.
The criterion is the machine-checkable version: a prediction that cannot be settled by a third party against a public source fails the build before it reaches this page.