Tencent publishes the final Hy4 weights by December 31st
Why I called it
Tencent launched Hy4 as on November 4th with the final not yet posted, and it shipped the preview's weights under in August, so the habit exists. A big lab that advertises the openness at launch pays a price for leaving it undelivered. The risk is the one Moonshot's K3.1 Pro call is testing right now: cyber fears and export politics give Chinese labs reasons to slip a date, and Tencent has named none.
The call, in full. Tencent makes downloadable weights for the final Hy4 model, distinct from the August Hy4 preview, publicly available on or before December 31st 2026.
Scoring criterion. RESOLVES CORRECT if downloadable weights for the final Hy4 model (about 770B total , not Hy4-preview) are publicly available on , ModelScope or Tencent's own distribution channel on or before 2026-12-31 23:59 UTC. RESOLVES WRONG otherwise.
The criterion is the machine-checkable version: a prediction that cannot be settled by a third party against a public source fails the build before it reaches this page.